G20 must say goodbye to fossil fuel and recommit to Paris 1.5C goal | The Secret Negotiator

The Glasgow Cop26 talks could fail before the conference even begins. This weekend, just as Cop26 starts, the G20 are meeting in Rome. This is a moment of maximum trepidation, as those 20 developed and emerging economies account for 78% of global greenhouse gas emissions. They meet outside the scrutiny and inclusivity of the UN process in Glasgow. What they agree to, or not, could affirm the Paris agreement goal of limiting global heating to 1.5C, or put it firmly out of reach for ever.First, the bad news. The G20 communique is a consensus document, a minimum agreement. If one country says no, for example, to specifying a phase-out date for coal, it won’t be in the final communique, so a vaguer formulation may be used.Second, the good news. Individual G20 countries are vulnerable to pressure on specific issues. If countries become isolated, they may agree to what initially appeared out of reach. Italy holds the G20 presidency and has partnered with the UK to host Cop26. This means Mario Draghi, Italy’s prime minister, will want to ink a G20 statement that gives the best chance of success in Glasgow.A good G20 communique would include four elements: long-term goals on emissions consistent with 1.5C; systemic near-term measures to cut emissions; commitments on climate finance; and a clear acknowledgment that the G20 are way off track on delivering on 1.5C.The G20 need to affirm their commitment to limit warming to 1.5C, the lower of the two temperature goals of the Paris agreement. Staying within 1.5C means bringing forward climate action by two decades compared with staying within 2C, the upper Paris limit. That means solving the climate crisis within the timespan of a politician’s career, meaning they could end up dealing with the consequences of their failures, perhaps even in court. That sharpens minds.If all the G20 were to commit to mid-century net zero targets, fossil fuels would become sunset industries. The International Energy Agency gives a clear 2050 net zero pathway, with 400 milestones, including no investments in new fossil fuels. For a start, that means ending governments’ overseas financing of coal – something the US, EU and China already agree on, so it should be achievable.More difficult will be a phase-out date for all unabated coal of 2030 for developed countries and 2040 for developing countries. That will mean cornering climate-pariah Australia.The G20 needs to end fossil fuel subsidies. Since January 2020, they poured a staggering $298bn in fossil fuel subsidies, the same as they spent on “green” recovery from Covid-19.The developed countries in the G20 must reaffirm their commitment to $100bn a year in climate finance. A wider commitment to reforming the banking and finance industries to align with net zero would signal that investments will shift to low-carbon.Finally, the G20 need to unequivocally state that collectively their emissions are far from Paris-aligned. This is critical in order to ramp up commitments in the near future, including an agreement in Glasgow detailing plans to accelerate progress in cutting emissions in the next few years.
Every week we’ll hear from negotiators from a developing country that is involved in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations and will be attending the Cop26 climate conference.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/oct/30/g20-must-say-goodbye-to-fossil-fuel-and-recommit-to-paris-15c-goal